Tottenham finished some 22 points behind the Premier League leaders Manchester City last season. It’s clearly possible for them to close the gap, but to what extent?
The 71 points earned by Spurs in the 2021/22 season was earned from 22 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses. Another 22 points, is the equivalent of another seven wins and an extra draw.
It should certainly be possible for Tottenham to gain more points than last season. It’s easy to go through the points dropped and identify games that should not have been lost. Southampton, Wolves and Brighton at home stand out, as do Crystal Palace and Burnley away. Of course though, there were also plenty of times when Spurs rode their luck. There were injury time winners scored against Watford, Leicester and Manchester City.
The relevant metrics to look at from last season, are the amount of points gained when Antonio Conte replaced Nuno as manager and then the impact made by signings in the January transfer window.
Conte took charge of 28 Premier League games last season, from which Spurs earned 56 points (W17 D5 L6), which is an average of 2 points per match. Applied to a full 38 game season, that creates a total of 76 points.
If you look at the results after Tottenham signed Rodrigo Bentancur and Dejan Kulusevski, it’s more encouraging still. The first game in which both started was the 3-2 win at Manchester City. There were 16 matches from that point when the new signings first started together and the end of the season, from which Spurs earned 35 points (W11 D2 L3). Applied to a 38 game season, the points total swells to 83.
With Tottenham having already made a number of signings over the summer, that latter number is encouraging, as is Conte’s overall impact since he joined the club. The Italian now has the benefit of a full pre-season and history suggests that his squad will start the campaign in peak fitness.
Everything points to Spurs gaining significantly more points this coming season, to last. Yet such are the standards set by both Manchester City and Liverpool, that a genuine title challenge, is far from guaranteed.
There is reason to believe that Liverpool’s standards could slip a little. The departing Sadio Mane has been an extremely important player for them, though Liverpool are a club with a brilliant recruitment record over recent seasons. There is next to no reason to think that Manchester City should get weaker, with the club having signed Erling Haaland over the summer.
At spinsify.com you can find gambling sites that have odds on the Premier League. Tottenham are priced as the 14/1 third favourites to win the title, behind Liverpool at 3/1 and Manchester City at 8/13.
These odds are probably about right. The rapid improvement under Conte and the work being done in the transfer market mean that Spurs have a chance, but it would still be something of a surprise if they could finish above Liverpool or Manchester City. For now, merely cutting the gap, could in itself be deemed an achievement.